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On the 1st Anniversary of Jane’s Country Risk Ratings IHS Jane’s Sums up how the World’s Stability has Changed
On the 1st Anniversary of Jane’s Country Risk Ratings IHS Jane’s Sums up how the World’s Stability has Changed
London (17th December 2008) -- At the end of 2008 Jane’s Country Risk has been quantatively measuring stability for a year. On the 1st anniversary of the production of the stability ratings, Jane’s examines how global stability has changed.
Jane’s Country Risk Ratings gauge the level of stability in a country by measuring 24 factors that together comprise the environment in which stability occurs. Rather than attempting to measure the probability of a particular threat occurring, such as a coup d’état, the risk ratings attempt to measure the factors that together could lead to such an event occurring, such as military support for the political status quo and the satisfaction of the military.
Christian LeMiere, Editor Jane’s Country Risk explained, “Iraq is probably the most significant development over the year, having seen its overall rating increase from 44 to 54, turning it from a high-risk state to a significant-risk state. The stabilisation of the government and the co-option of the Sons of Iraq militias have been the primary factors improving the country’s stability throughout 2008.”
South Ossetia has also seen its stability increase, albeit with substantial movement in the run-up to and during the August conflict between Russia and Georgia. The post-conflict situation has allowed for an improvement in its political stability and, perhaps most importantly, in its external stability as the partial destruction and dismantling of the Georgian armed forces by Russia has effectively removed the threat of any further incursions from Tbilisi in anything but the long term.
Ten Least Stable Countries From Jane’s Country Risk Report
Somalia has proven a perennial low scorer in stability ratings, and at the end of 2008 overtook Gaza and the West Bank as the least stable entity in the world with a decrease from 28 to 27 in its overall rating. The collapse of the Somali unity government and increasing influence of the Shabab militia have seen its political and military ratings fall, while Ethiopia’s imminent withdrawal could further destabilise the country.
Zimbabwe, already suffering from the worst economic stability ratings in the world, has seen its political and social ratings deteriorate in 2008. This is largely because negotiations between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have struggled to forge a workable government, while social conditions have worsened amid the economic crisis. Zimbabwe has thus entered the 10 least stable entities in the world.
Despite its worsening security environment, Pakistan has yet to be classified as one of the 10 least stable entities in the world.
The Year Ahead
With 2008 delivering a range of varying stability changes throughout the world, some more expected than others, caution would perhaps be advisable when attempting to forecast any further adjustments in 2009.
One overriding factor that will affect all countries will be the global liquidity crisis and lower oil prices. Already this has had an impact on states such as Pakistan, Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
China, in particular, has seen its economic ratings fall rapidly as employment and labour have become major security issues. With the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 acting as a salutary lesson in how economic difficulties can feed a political movement, the overall ratings for the country have fallen from 64 to 60. Similar deteriorations can be expected from other states with export-led and/or commodity-focused economies.
Jane's Country Risk Stability Map (Click on Map)
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Editor’s notes:
To discuss these ratings further with one of Jane’s Country Risk team or to see the full article please contact Mandy Castle, PR Manager, Jane's Information Group (contact details at top of page).
About IHS Jane’s
IHS Jane’s, (NYSE: IHS), is the leading open source information provider and conference organiser on defence, international risk and national security to governments, militaries, industries and academia around the globe. Jane’s is headquartered in London, and also has offices in Alexandria, Virginia; Singapore; Tokyo; Dubai; and Sydney, Australia. For more information, please visit our award-winning website, www.janes.com.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted data and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security and Environment. By focusing on customers first, IHS enables innovative and successful decision-making for customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals in more than 180 countries. IHS has been in business since 1959 and employs approximately 3,800 employees in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
Comment from Editor Jane’s Defence Weekly about UK Government Announcement Regarding Iraq
London (17th December 2008) -- Peter Felstead, Editor Jane’s Defence Weekly, commented, ”This announcement is in line with previously declared hopes of a UK pullout in 2009. The UK contribution in Iraq is really subject to a law of diminishing return -- they have done pretty much all they can do. There must also be a confidence that the Iraqi security forces can now stand on their own two feet and perform as required.”
Felstead continued, “For the UK armed forces, the emphasis is now very much on Afghanistan -- very much a different kettle of fish to Iraq in which the very credibility of NATO is at stake.”
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Editor’s notes:
To interview Peter Felstead, Editor Jane’s Defence Weekly, please contact Mandy Castle, PR Manager, IHS Jane's (contact details at top of page).
About IHS Jane’s
IHS Jane’s, (NYSE: IHS), is the leading open source information provider and conference organiser on defence, international risk and national security to governments, militaries, industries and academia around the globe. Jane’s is headquartered in London, and also has offices in Alexandria, Virginia; Singapore; Tokyo; Dubai; and Sydney, Australia. For more information, please visit our award-winning website, www.janes.com.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted data and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security and Environment. By focusing on customers first, IHS enables innovative and successful decision-making for customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals in more than 180 countries. IHS has been in business since 1959 and employs approximately 3,800 employees in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
Contact:
Mandy Castle
Jane’s Information Group
Public Relations Manager
+44 (0) 208 700 3745
amanda.castle@janes.com
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